It has been just over a week since the Bihar election results, and Nitish Kumar has been sworn in as Chief Minister for the tenth time in his political career, along with his first set of cabinet ministers.
This outcome has left some sections of the media a bit disappointed, as they had speculated on the possibility of a fractured mandate or even a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) defeat, which could have led to various realignment possibilities at the centre.
Even the staunchest supporters of Rahul Gandhi have conceded that, although the scale of the NDA’s victory exceeded all expectations, the defeat of the Mahagathbandhan was inevitable. Some journalists friendly to Congress have now revealed that the party’s internal surveys had predicted a poor performance.
In a trademark about-turn, Yogendra Yadav, who had inveigled his way into Rahul Gandhi’s inner circle and was considered a key architect of the Bharat Jodo Yatra and the “Vote Chori" campaign, has realised that these were never significant election issues and failed to resonate with the electorate.With hopes dashed, attention has now shifted to the future of the Congress party. Pontificating on how to revive the fortunes of the Grand Old Party, which is on a slope of terminal decline under the Gandhis, has become the periodic pastime of political commentators. They are all advising introspection over blame games.
However, even a novice media person would not expect any introspection from the high command. Filled with sycophants who believe “the boss is always right", the upper echelons of the party live in perpetual denial, adhering to the classic Transactional Analysis state of “I am OK, all others are not OK." In their view, the problem always lies with the rest of the world.
It is, therefore, no surprise that the official party line is that the mandate was stolen through a massive conspiracy orchestrated by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in collusion with the Election Commission. Rahul Gandhi and his loyalists have intensified their rhetoric, loudly accusing “vote chori", a claim that has been amplified by their social media supporters with templated posts.
Interestingly, the old guard has maintained a studied silence. The few who have chosen to speak have been remarkably measured and balanced, likely because they know that any advice will be water off the proverbial duck’s back — that being the young scion of the Gandhi family. Equally, he does not seem to be unduly bothered about what others have to say beyond his inner coterie.
Still, it would be naive to underestimate the political acumen and survival instincts of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, which has managed to stay in power for the better part of eighty years since India’s independence, with only intermittent gaps. They have shown no disinterest in reclaiming power and exude a strong sense of entitlement. This is evident from Priyanka Gandhi stepping in to fill the space created by her mother’s indifferent health and the quiet grooming of her son, Raihan. If the grapevine is to be believed, Raihan has been christened as Raihan Rajiv Vadra, preparing to claim the family mantle at an opportune time with a suitable twist in the last name. Thus, if they have been acting against conventional wisdom, it must be with good reason.
As posited in a previous article, the Gandhis have realised that they cannot win elections through conventional contests. Rebuilding the party from the grassroots would require an organisational depth that the Congress has systematically destroyed over the years by disempowering mass leaders and jettisoning promising young Turks who could challenge Rahul Gandhi. Therefore, their strategy appears to be to conquer through disruptions and aerial strikes. This might explain the obsessive persistence with the Vote Chori theory and the open invocation of Gen Z to come out and protest, drawing overt parallels with Bangladesh and Nepal, which smacks of a western regime change template.
Yogendra Yadav’s distancing from Rahul Gandhi immediately after the elections also appears a calculated strategic move. He has gone on an overdrive, starting a new crusade, as it were, for what he calls “Reclaiming the Republic". At a seminar in Kolkata, he declared, “We are not only losing elections – we are losing elections, we are losing our people."
A rather presumptuous claim some would say. He is hopping across TV studios, podcast Zoom screens, and talk-fests – advocating a ‘social coalition’ based on “Rahul Gandhi’s social justice and caste census" to form a formidable opposition alliance to beat the BJP in 2029.
One should not forget that he was the one who sold the idea of caste census to Rahul Gandhi, albeit with disastrous electoral consequences. So, could it be that he and Rahul Gandhi have decided to split forces to “divide and conquer"?
Meanwhile, the BJP is not expected to sit idle. The 2024 elections served as a wake-up call, and subsequent state assembly elections have shown that the BJP has learned valuable lessons, including the importance of the RSS’s influence. The Bihar election results serve as a case study in social re-engineering. The reality check of the Lok Sabha Polls has prompted the BJP to adopt a more tempered approach in dealing with coalition partners. Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar exemplify a new, flexible coalition management strategy, following a “horses for courses" model. The way the government tackled some recent references to the Supreme Court – shows it has got its act together in tackling judicial challenges to administrative decisions – besides being unapologetic about the use of administrative levers available to it – for example, in the case of SIR (Special Intensive Revision of Electoral Rolls) by the Election Commission.
These developments are certainly not going unnoticed by the Opposition, particularly the Congress. Despite a series of setbacks, the Congress appears determined to reclaim power. However, the question remains — Will shortcuts suffice against the gargantuan electoral machinery of the BJP, managed by some of the sharpest political minds?
The upcoming elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Bengal may provide a sneak preview into what lies ahead.