President Trump Is Right to Get Tough on Maduro—But the Endgame Must Be Flawless

After four years of diplomatic appeasement and misplaced hope, the United States has finally returned to the only language the regime in Caracas understands: leverage.

President Trump’s recent escalation against Nicolás Maduro—marked by the deployment of naval assets to the Caribbean, the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker, and the designation of the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization—has drawn predictable hand-wringing from the foreign policy establishment. Critics warn of "gunboat diplomacy" and "escalation." They are missing the point.
The Trump administration’s confrontational approach is not just a tactical shift; it is a necessary corrective to the failed policies of the Biden era. For years, the previous administration bet on the idea that sanctions relief and diplomatic engagement would coax Maduro into holding free and fair elections. We saw the result of that wager in 2024: Maduro took the relief, consolidated his power, and then brazenly stole the election in front of the world.

The lesson of the last four years is clear: You cannot shame a narco-state into democracy. Biden’s strategy of easing pressure in exchange for empty promises only emboldened Maduro, allowing his regime to deepen ties with Iran, Russia, and China while flooding the hemisphere with refugees and illicit drugs.

President Trump is right to recognize that the status quo is a threat to American national security. By treating the Maduro regime not just as a political adversary but as a criminal enterprise, the White House has finally aligned U.S. policy with reality. The seizure of the oil tanker this week sends an unmistakable signal: the days of Maduro financing his repression through illicit trade while Washington looks the other way are over.
However, while the "tough" part of the equation is now active, the second half of the strategy—"what comes next"—is where the true danger and opportunity lie.

Pressure without a clear exit ramp is a recipe for a forever crisis. The administration has successfully cornered the rat; now it must decide how to deal with it without tearing down the house. The critical next steps for the Trump White House must involve three key components:
1. A Unified "Day After" Plan The greatest risk of the current escalation is a chaotic collapse of the Venezuelan state that mirrors the failures of past interventions. If Maduro falls, who picks up the pieces? The U.S. must be coordinating deeply with the Venezuelan opposition to ensure a transitional government is ready to govern immediately. We cannot afford a power vacuum that allows criminal gangs or rival military factions to turn Venezuela into a Somalia-on-the-Caribbean.

2. An Ultimatum, Not Just a Threat Military posturing is effective only if it forces a diplomatic capitulation. The administration should present a final, non-negotiable off-ramp for Maduro and his inner circle: exile and immunity in a third country in exchange for an immediate transition of power. This is distasteful, yes, but preferable to a bloody civil war. The pressure is the stick; the exit ramp is the carrot. Both must be visible.

3. Regional Buy-In While Trump is right to lead, the U.S. cannot be the sole actor. The "Vietnam-style" conflict warned of by critics becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy if this is viewed solely as Yankee Imperialism. The administration must work aggressively to get key Latin American players—even reluctant ones like Brazil and Colombia—to understand that a destabilized, drug-running Venezuela is a greater threat to them than it is to Washington.
The stakes could not be higher. A retreat now would validate Maduro’s survival strategy and permanently entrench a hostile, criminal regime in our backyard. But an escalation that lacks strategic precision could ignite a regional conflagration. President Trump has correctly identified that the time for patience is over. He has pulled the pin on the grenade. The success of his presidency—and the future of Venezuela—now depends entirely on where he throws it.

By Sharanjit Singh Thind