Art of The Deal'- Dealing with "Bad Actors", Why Trump is hitting China on trade - and what might happen next

(SAI Bureau) New York- Suddenly, Donald Trump's trade war is in much sharper focus. Rather than a fight on all fronts against the world, this now looks far more like a fight on familiar Trumpian territory: America v China.The 90-day pause on the higher "retaliatory" tariffs levied on dozens of countries still leaves a universal across-the-board tariff of 10% in place. For a politician who first fought his way to the White House on the back of an anti-China message, there is much more to this than simple retaliation. For Trump, this is about the unfinished business of that first term in office. "We didn't have the time to do the right thing, which we're doing now," he told reporters. The aim is nothing less than the upending of an established system of global trade centred on China as the factory of the world, as well as the once widely held view that underpinned it – the idea that more of this trade was, in and of itself, a good thing. China now produces 60% of the world's electric cars – a large proportion of them made by its own homegrown brands and - and 80% of the batteries that power them. So, now Trump is back, with this tit-for-tat escalation on levies. It would, arguably, be the biggest shock ever delivered to the established global trading system, were it not for all the other on-again off-again tariff measures the US president has rolled out in recent days. What happens next depends on two key questions. Firstly, whether China takes up that offer to negotiate. And secondly, assuming it eventually does, whether China is willing to make the kind of major concessions that America is looking for, including a complete overhaul of its export driven economic model.In answering them, the first thing to say is that we are in completely uncharted territory, so we should be wary of anyone who says they know how Beijing is likely to react. But there are certainly reasons to be cautious. China's vision of its economic strength - one based on strong exports and a tightly protected domestic market - is now closely bound up with its idea of national rejuvenation and the supremacy of its one-party system. Its tight control over the information sphere means it will be unlikely to drop its barriers to American technology companies, for example. But there is a third question, and it is one for America to answer. Does the US still believe in free trade? Donald Trump often suggests that tariffs are a good thing, not merely as a means to an end, but as an end in themselves. He talks about the benefit of a protectionist barrier for America, in order to stimulate domestic investment, encourage American companies to bring those foreign supply chains back home, and raise tax revenues. And if Beijing believes that is indeed the primary purpose of the tariffs, it may decide there is nothing to negotiate anyway. Rather than championing the idea of economic co-operation, the world's two biggest superpowers may find themselves locked in a fight for winner-takes-all economic supremacy. If so, that really would mark a shattering of the old consensus, and a very different, possibly very dangerous, future. Retreat or negotiating strategy? Trump steps back from all-out trade war For days, Donald Trump and his White House team had insisted they were fully committed to their decision to impose sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of countries. They even derided a report on Tuesday that said the president was considering a 90-day pause – news that triggered a brief stock market surge. But now that pause on higher tariff rates, with a few notable exceptions, is a reality. The reordering of the global economic order is on hold, and Trump's promise of a golden age of American manufacturing will have to wait.The White House has said that going big on tariffs and then hitting the pause button, before entering negotiations with individual countries, was the plan all along. "We've had more than 75 countries contact us, and I imagine, after today, there will be more," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters shortly after the announcement. That framing from the White House is not surprising, of course. And it is difficult to ignore the investor panic, tumbling bond market and growing chorus of Republican criticism and public disapproval that preceded the announcement. So was it a strategic retreat in the face of unexpected resistance, or yet another example of Trump's "art of the deal" negotiating strategy at work? It didn't take long for Trump's aides – many of the same people who said he would never back down – to fan out and celebrate the president's move. Trade adviser Peter Navarro said Trump's tariff situation "unfolded exactly the way it should". "You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here," press secretary Karoline Leavitt told a crowd of gathered reporters. "The entire world is calling the United States of America." They were less clear about the details of Trump's tariff suspension, announced via a post on his Truth Social website. Did the reprieve in higher tariffs apply to the EU? Were Mexico and Canada, which had avoided the original 10% baseline tariffs, somehow now included? Were tariffs targeting specific sectors affected? Ultimately, the White House provided some clarity on these questions – but for hours US trading partners were left to scrutinise Trump's Truth Social post and glean details from answers to questions shouted by reporters at press gaggles. On Wednesday afternoon, Trump acknowledged that the markets had looked "pretty glum" and that "people were getting a little queasy" – a reflection that undercut some of the bravado he expressed over the past week and could hint at the real reason for his tariff change of course. Earlier in the day, he was on Truth Social, urging people to "BE COOL!" and promising that "everything is going to work out". And on Monday he lashed out at what he called "panicans" - a party based on "weak and stupid people" who weren't patient with his efforts. In the end, it was Trump who made an abrupt change of course. He insisted, however, that his tariff announcement was one that had to be made, and that any economic disruptions reflected a sickness that had been allowed to fester in the American economy. Democrats, meanwhile, painted a less rosy picture. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accused Trump of "governing by chaos". "He is reeling, he is retreating, and that is a good thing," he said. In the end, the thought process behind Trump's decision may not really matter. The reality is that the US is now making nice – or at least nicer - with nations that had faced their retaliatory trade fire, even though Trump is still imposing a 10% across the board tariff that by itself would have been huge news just a few weeks ago. It is enough of a step down for the stock market to bounce back, however, and Trump is now leaning into a trade war with China which he hit with 125% tariffs. That will have global economic repercussions of its own, but it is more in line with recent American foreign policy - including that of Democratic President Joe Biden - as it seeks to constrain Chinese ambitions. The big unknown, however, is whether Trump's actions over the past week – setting allies scrambling and threatening the established global order – will have made such a strategy more difficult to pursue. And in 90 days, when Trump's pause expires, this week's economic drama and uncertainty could begin all over again.