South Asian Insider
Most bizarre political bets that gamblers are making in 2020
(News Agencies)-As the country heads into the 2020 presidential election, Fox News contributor and pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson looked into alternative ways to examine public opinion - and she found that gamblers are making some bizarre predictions.
"What are some of the most unusual things that you are finding people really interested in placing their bets on as we head into 2020?" she asked co-founder of the online prediction market Predictit, John Aristotle Phillips, on her new Fox Nation show "What Are The Odds?"
"There are about 1,000 different markets that we've put up and predicted," Phillips said. "Things like, 'Will Trump mention Sleepy Joe in a tweet this week'? The tweet markets are very interesting."
When it comes to whether or not President Trump will complete his four-year term, there are relatively few people putting their money on the likelihood the president will be removed from office by the Senate, following the President's impeachment in the House.
"Some traders out there think there's one in 10 odds that Trump's going to be convicted in the Senate," said Phillips, though he pointed that there's another market around the possibility that Trump will decide to leave the White House on his own.
"The odds are actually higher - slightly higher - that Trump will resign during his first term," he revealed. "Not a lot, still less than around one in 10."
"There's a long shot bias that that people often have," Phillips added, "which is that they think that they can multiply their money if they take something that perhaps they can convince themselves is going to happen, even though the odds are long against it."
"You probably could have gotten really good odds on Donald Trump being president of the United States, if you would put it put a couple bucks on him in, I don't know, June of 2015," joked Soltis Anderson.
In fact, there are gamblers who are putting their money on former Democratic presidential nominee and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton potentially winning the White House in 2020.
"You can look at the 'buying Hillarys' right now for eight cents [to the dollar] or five cents that she's going to be the nominee. There's somebody that thinks the odds are at least one in 20 that that's going to happen," said Phillips.
Soltis Anderson observed that the betting markets can be a good way to supplement our understanding of public opinion on the biggest questions of the day.
"Polls are a bit of a lagging indicator," she argued. "It takes a couple of days in the field to collect that data, then to make sure that it's all accurate... Whereas the betting markets, as you mentioned, can change moment to moment."
"The markets do reflect minute to minute because they can change and they operate 24/7," Phillips agreed. "So there might be something [that] happens overnight that's reflected right away or it might start to build momentum the next morning."
At the moment, Phillips said, "the betting markets are saying that it's a coin flip as to whether or not Trump will be reelected. So he's just around 47, 48 percent odds - slightly under 50 percent odds. But that gyrates."
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